24 Hours

Well we've come down to it. After two years of endless debates, ads, wrangling it's time. It has been such a fascinating election season. Nearly all of the conventional wisdom has been thrown in disarray at one point or another. I remember reading articles a year or more ago announcing the inevitability of Hillary Clinton or Rudy Giuliani. There was one conservative article that sticks in my mind, where the author confidently asserted that Obama would lose the primary, but would be back in 2016...after 8 years of President Romney. My mind floods with memories of posts entitled "Why Fred Thompson will win!" or "Why Mitt Romney will win!" or "The Audacity of Barack Obama" which excoriated him for daring to think he could take on the Clinton machine.

Now here we are, (barring some recount fiasco) one rotation of the Earth away from Decision 2008. Random thoughts on the whirlwind this has been:

- It will be historic either way, an African-American President or a woman Vice-President. What this says about our country is incredibly heartening.

- The bitter primary probably helped Obama more than anyone thought. The Right has been complaining that McCain didn't bring up Rev. Wright or Tony Rezko, who have been described as some sort of "silver bullet" that would be sure to take Obama down. Why they think this amazes me. Hillary threw all of this and the kitchen sink at Obama. We've heard it. Wright did his damage months ago. Were the Republicans not paying attention? The fight with Hillary also resulted in the massive ground operation that Obama has in several states that a Democrat wouldn't normally contest. Thanks to Hillary, he has offices open and an army of experienced organizers and volunteers in places like North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Montana. Even places he lost to her like Pennsylvania are showing the benefits of that operation. CW at the time was that the bitterness of the Dem fight might actually cause Obama and Clinton to knock each other out (I remember a cartoon depicting the two of them as two bilious hares not noticing a McCain tortoise crossing the finish line). If Obama's ground game gets him over the top in some of these states, that bruising fight may turn out to be the best gift Hillary has given Barack.

- It was stunning to see how the candidates I disliked the most fell so quickly. In 2000 the one person running on either side who I least wanted to be President got the job, George W. Bush. In 2008 the two people who I least liked were Giuliani and Romney. Super Tuesday did them both in. The speed of Rudy's fall was actually quite remarkable. Meanwhile the two people who I most liked on the either side, Obama and McCain made it. I have a great deal of respect for Hillary, and I get a real kick out of Huckabee, but my two favorites on each side made it to the top. In that sense I can't lose tomorrow.

- Many things which would usually be gamechangers were not. The debates for example were a complete wash. I actually thought McCain won them, at least the first and last. Obama always held his own, but McCain did quite well, I thought. But it didn't matter, they were equally matched and the viewing public saw it. It was fascinating to watch the dial testers, though I'm not sure how I feel about them. They are addicting, but also distracting and manipulative, and potentially unrepresentative. But they were too interesting to ignore.

- Personally I think the media coverage has also been a wash. Yes, they were certainly enamored with Obama at the start. But they helped to drive several negative stories about him in the ensuing months, like Wright, his failing with blue-collar folks in Appalachia, his slip-ups like Bittergate. To say the "MSM" is "in the tank" is absurd (except perhaps for MSNBC and Fox, but those depend on which programs you watch). One of the great ironies is that the media has taken so much flak for "being easy on Obama" precisely at the moment it was pushing stories like "Why can't Obama close the deal?" and "The Wright Factor" and such. Yes, McCain has taken a lot of pounding in recent days, but much of that has been driven by his own behavior, shutting out reporters he used to pal around with, launching unnecessarily mean-spirited ads, etc... I really don't think the media has a "liberal bias" as much as it has a "media bias". Reporters want to be read, want to be seen, want to be talked about. They want their newspapers bought, they want their shows advertised on. In short, they want ratings. What draws people are good stories, controversial stories, stories that are fun to watch. If Obama's eloquent speeches get people to watch, they'll play 'em. If digging into Palin's past in Wasilla sells papers, they'll do it. But that's just my opinion. It depends on whom you read and watch. Olbermann is over the top liberal. O'Reilly over the top conservative. I must admit I have cheered the rapid rise of Rachel Maddow. She seems sensible, only has one guest on at a time (this is a real plus for me --- if I have to spend one more minute watching "panels" of pundits screaming over each other I'm going to scream myself), she respects the opinions of people who disagree like Pat Buchanan, and she's a hometown girl from Castro Valley, California (very near where I grew up).

- Biden is a gadfly who I wish would muzzle it. He is personable, experienced, connects with blue-collar folks, has excellent foreign policy experience, and I really wish Obama had picked someone else. He is perfectly qualified for the job, and for the presidency, should (God forbid) that need ever arise. But I shudder to think of how many times he will embarrass Obama in the years to come should they win.

- Palin is vibrant, interesting, incredibly likable, and almost totally unqualified for the job. Her answers to even simple questions have been painful. She has good executive experience though her tenure in Alaska seems to be a mixed bag. She has a reformer's record but has been needlessly careless about things like firings and per diems. She seems to know next to nothing about foreign affairs or domestic policy beyond the talking points she's been fed. She is bold and confident, but not very thoughtful (as opposed to Obama, who is often halting and cerebral, but clearly knowledgeable). It is almost inconceivable to me that she could handle the job of President should (God forbid) that need arise, at least not right now. I started off liking her a great deal (see my first post about VP possibilities), but I think this process has harmed her.

- It has been sad for me to watch what I believe to be a disintegration of McCain's integrity. He stood there saying "Country First" and "Experience Counts" then he chose Sarah Palin. He promised clean campaigning, then ran guilt-by-association ad hominem attack ads. He promised straight talk, then told lies about Obama's tax plan (no, Senator, he's not going to raise "my taxes", I'm not that rich thank you very much). They have both been guilty of distortion (Obama has disappointed me greatly with his social security and "100 years in Iraq" attacks), but Obama never made it personal. Rather than sticking to the issues, McCain went for Ayers, Rezko, and Khalidi. For a man who can rightly boast of a long record of bi-partisan work, McCain has resorted to name calling..."socialist", "palling around with terrorists", and a scary intonation of the word "liberal" (the "liberal" positions Lieberman holds on a host of issues apparently not concerning him). A man who worked with the likes of Russ Feingold, he now describes Pelosi and Reid as some sort of diabolical duo. He condemned hateful robo-calls in 2000, now he's running them himself. The Straight Talk express has been slipping away for months now, as he has transformed himself increasingly into the kind of partisan hack I have always loathed. Where is the straight-talker of 2000? Well the conservatives point out that he lost in 2000. To paraphrase one of McCain's finest phrases, I'd rather lose an election than lose my integrity.

- Obama's problem is not Ayers or Wright or Rezko, it is Chicago itself. The clean fact of the matter is that Chicago embraces characters that other places would consider unsavory. Despite his past, Bill Ayers was accepted by respectable Chicago society. He became a respected college professor and served on the board of a world-reknowned educational foundation founded by Republicans. For all his "scary" black liberation theology, Wright was a respected pastor of a well known church. Rezko, Khalidi, it's all the same. These were respectable people in Chicago. Obama had no reason to doubt that. He did not seek these people out because they had like-minded radical ideas. He took Chicago as it came. To condemn Obama is to condemn the whole of Chicago. McCain has been content to do just that. Republicans have never had a problem writing off huge swaths of the American landscape (the "Country" that comes "First" clearly does not include San Francisco...the entire state of Massachusetts...or anything in New York north of Wall Street and Ground Zero...but Wasilla? You betcha).

- The fringe claims about Obama are internally contradictory. Supposedly the most troubling things about him are that he is a Muslim and that he shares the anti-American rantings of Rev. Wright. So...which is it? If he's a Muslim he doesn't share Wright's views. If he shares Wright's views than he is a black liberation theology Christian. You really can't have it both ways. I read an item today claiming he is not a U.S. citizen because he was born in Kenya. He is not a U.S. citizen because he is Indonesian. So...which is it, is he Kenyan or Indonesian?

- All of which is to say that I have been wrong about Obama. Four years ago I watched him speak at the Democratic Convention and I had tears in my eyes. Here was someone who could inspire, who could bring us together and make us proud again. Part of the reason I supported him over Hillary is that half the country hates Mrs. Clinton. She stirred partisan tensions while Obama was the one to unite us. Well, I was wrong, and I think the Democrats who hoped this would be true were wrong. I should have known that the conservatives would end up hating Obama just as much as any Democrat.

I don't know about you, but I am about ready for this to be over. We'll have to see what tomorrow brings.